Research Updates

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Greenland as a Structural AI Strategic Node: Perception Integrity, Temporal Dominance, and the Arctic Reconfiguration of Algorithmic Power

This working paper reframes Greenland as a structural AI strategic node within global systems of sensing, decision-making, infrastructure, and governance, arguing that its integration shapes long-term strategic option spaces rather than immediate tactical outcomes in the AI era. 

When decapitation no longer matters: AI-delegated execution and the potential failure of preemptive strike logic 

This working paper analyzes preemptive strike doctrine under conditions of AI-enabled delegated execution. It argues that preemption’s risk-reduction logic depends on a disruptable human decision bottleneck, historically embodied in leadership decapitation. As retaliatory execution becomes pre-authorized and institutionally insulated from real-time human intervention, leadership removal no longer alters the probability, scale, or certainty of response—a condition termed decapitation irrelevance. Under such conditions, preemptive strike collapses from a rational risk-management strategy into destruction without leverage, relocating deterrence stability from crisis-time discretion to pre-crisis institutional design. 

After a year of work, the Global Artificial Intelligence Development, Governance, and Competitiveness Assessment Framework (Ver. 0.9) is now fully developed and documented. It comprises 7 analytical layers, 25 indicator clusters, 148 core indicators, and 665 extended metrics, and forms an integrated assessment architecture for AI development, governance capacity, and systemic competitiveness. Formal publication and subsequent applications are currently under preparation.  

Nonlinear Uncertainty in Drone Warfare: Why Indeterminacy Outperforms Precision in Contested ISR Environments 

This policy report examines why uncertainty in drone warfare is a structural condition of contested ISR environments and argues that robustness-oriented, indeterminacy-preserving postures can outperform precision-centric approaches in sustaining strategic stability.