Publications

Nonlinear Uncertainty in Drone Warfare: 

Why Indeterminacy Outperforms Precision in Contested ISR Environments

This policy report examines the strategic implications of uncertainty in contemporary drone warfare. It develops an analytical framework for understanding how nonlinear interaction, adversary adaptation, and endogenous observability costs jointly produce spatiotemporal indeterminacy in contested ISR environments. The report is intended for policymakers, analysts, and researchers concerned with defense planning, evaluation metrics, strategic stability, and governance design. 

From Detection to Depletion: 

Cost-Exchange Limits in the Russia–Ukraine Drone War

This research report develops a Minimum Viable, Auditable framework for evaluating counter-drone sustainability in the Russia–Ukraine drone war. It shifts assessment from intercept-centric measures toward cost-exchange sustainability, loss suppression, and mission-outcome preservation, using indicators such as CER, OLER, CER*obs, CPLAobs, KAPR, and KAPS.