Publications

From Connections to Consequences:

Cross-Theater Conflict Coupling and Strategic Capacity in Interconnected Wars

This research report develops Cross-Theater Conflict Coupling (CTCC) as an evidence-based framework for examining how the Russia–Ukraine and U.S.–Israel–Iran conflicts interact through shared military-industrial resources, technological adaptation, operational knowledge, energy systems, and policy-controlled access. Through five conditional propositions and six evidence gates (G1–G6), it analyzes PAC-3 MSE allocation, Shahed–Geran industrial conversion, Ukrainian counter-drone assistance to Gulf states, Russian diesel diplomacy, and international energy buffers. The report further examines asymmetric war termination and its implications for strategic capacity, resource reallocation, and continuing military obligations. It argues that cross-war connections do not automatically produce strategic gains; their consequences depend on verified transmission, recipient-side conversion, institutional constraints, temporal dynamics, and attributable outcomes.

The U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict on Day 200

Strategic Objectives, Systemic Costs, and the Rewiring of Networked War

This research report provides a strategic and systemic assessment of the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict on Day 200. It examines how the war evolved from direct military confrontation into a broader contest involving maritime access, logistics, energy, financial markets, infrastructure, technological adaptation, alliance relationships, and cross-theater connectivity. Rather than treating battlefield activity as the sole measure of conflict intensity, the report analyzes how military operations interact with the wider systems that sustain military capability, transmit disruption, and shape strategic pressure. It combines public-source reporting, author-compiled datasets, and MCCM v2.3.4 analytical coding, while distinguishing publicly confirmed evidence, reported or contested claims, and author-derived analytical estimates. The report concludes that by Day 200 the conflict is best understood as escalation without demonstrated systemic collapse: high systemic pressure persists across an interconnected conflict system, while key functions continue through adaptation, redundancy, and partial recovery. 

India’s AI Power in a Distributed and Uneven Technological Order: 

Boundary Control, Strategic Autonomy, and Cognitive Security 

This research report examines India’s emerging AI power through the interaction of usable national capacity, technological dependence, boundary control, strategic autonomy, and cognitive security. It argues that India’s position is best understood as a distributed and vertically uneven mixed-control system: strong software capacity, digital public infrastructure, multilingual public technology, a large technical workforce, expanding compute access, and globally distributed technical networks coexist with dependence on externally controlled upstream technologies. The report distinguishes access from mobilizable capability, territorial presence from control, boundary power from boundary autonomy, and systemic influence from narrower bilateral effects. It concludes that India’s long-term AI power will depend on conversion, substitutability, resilient public infrastructure, selective boundary control, and the ability to preserve agency without full technological autarky.

From Detection to Depletion: 

Cost-Exchange Limits in the Russia–Ukraine Drone War

This research report develops a Minimum Viable, Auditable framework for evaluating counter-drone sustainability in the Russia–Ukraine drone war. It shifts assessment from intercept-centric measures toward cost-exchange sustainability, loss suppression, and mission-outcome preservation, using indicators such as CER, OLER, CER*obs, CPLAobs, KAPR, and KAPS.