Publications

Operational Control versus Systemic Connectivity:

The Emerging Structure of U.S.–China Competition under Networked Warfare

This policy brief examines the emerging structure of U.S.–China competition under networked warfare. It argues that the United States and China can shape the same cross-theater conflict environment without becoming opposing belligerents in the same war. The brief distinguishes two forms of functional centrality: the United States as an operational-control center, able to organize alliances, intelligence, bases, logistics, targeting, and scarce high-end forces across theaters; and China as a systemic-connectivity node, whose influence rests on industrial depth, energy and trade relationships, logistics alternatives, and diplomatic access. It concludes that long-war advantage will depend on the ability to combine high-end military control with sustainable production, repair, rerouting, recovery, and systemic adaptability.

From Separate Wars to Linked Battlefields: 

The Emerging Risk of Continentalized Conflict

This policy brief examines the emerging risk that formally separate conflicts are becoming functionally connected across the Russia–Ukraine war, the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict, Red Sea confrontation, Caspian insecurity, and European support infrastructure. It argues that the current condition is not a unified war or partial battlefield integration, but advanced cross-theater coupling: personnel, air-defense expertise, maritime incidents, basing access, tanker deployments, logistics corridors, threat designations, and resource-allocation pressures are beginning to transmit effects across theaters. The brief introduces continentalization as a higher-order process in which separated conflicts become persistently interdependent through operations, personnel, technology, bases, logistics, maritime corridors, intelligence, industrial capacity, third-party nodes, and shared resource constraints. 

A Preliminary Assessment of Eastward and Northward Logistics Alternatives under Hormuz Pressure: 

The China–Russia–Central Asia–Caspian Network

This policy brief assesses whether pressure on the Strait of Hormuz is increasing the use and strategic value of eastward and northward logistics alternatives linking China, Russia, Central Asia, and the Caspian Sea. It argues that these routes provide redundancy rather than a substitute for Persian Gulf maritime scale. Drawing on China–Central Asia rail data, Caspian port-system indicators, arrival–departure coupling, and Russian-flagged vessel monitoring, the brief finds evidence of more intensive corridor utilization and a distributed logistics redundancy network, while cautioning that the available data do not prove conflict causality, Iran-bound diversion, cargo composition, or final destination. 

Is the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict Entering Phase III?

Residual Target Depletion and the Shift from Asset Destruction to Functional Disruption

This policy brief assesses whether the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict is entering a third phase and introduces Residual Target Depletion (RTD) as a framework for understanding how protracted conflict changes the strategic value of remaining targets. It argues that repeated destruction, disablement, hardening, dispersion, substitution, and exposure reduce the marginal return from further disruption of previously exposed fixed assets, shifting strategic competition from asset destruction and recovery denial toward functional disruption. A genuine Phase III would therefore be defined not simply by higher strike intensity, but by sustained competition over the distributed functions that preserve residual operational continuity. 

Khamenei’s Funeral as a Geopolitical Roll Call: 

The Emerging Middle East–Eurasia Order

This policy brief examines Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral as a geopolitical roll call of the emerging Middle East–Eurasia order. It argues that the event reveals a network rather than a bloc and distinguishes among state diplomacy, religious authority, and state–wider response divergence. By comparing expected and actual participation, representative level, expanded participation, unresolved absence, and wider responses, the brief shows how ceremonial diplomacy can expose strategic autonomy, political risk, external pressure, corridor connectivity, and cross-system relationships. Pakistan emerges as a major bridge node, while the broader pattern points to an order defined by partial alignment, strategic connectivity, and contested autonomy rather than a new bipolar divide.

Global AI Power Mapping: 

Domains, Alliances, and Rule Spaces

This policy brief develops a domain-based framework for mapping global AI power beyond public model rankings, firm valuations, or market share. It argues that AI power is distributed through overlapping domains shaped by states, platforms, cloud infrastructure, data regimes, standards, capital networks, language communities, industrial systems, public institutions, and security architectures. The brief identifies seven proposed AI power domains—the U.S.-Backed AI Domain, China-Backed AI Domain, EU Regulatory Domain, India Service and Language Domain, Gulf Capital and Compute Nodes, Russian Sovereign Security AI Domain, and Global South AI Application Zones—and examines how overlap zones may become key arenas of AI infrastructure, standards, localization, data governance, and geopolitical competition. 

AI Capability Stratification:

A Framework for the Future Distribution of AI Power

This policy brief develops AI Capability Stratification as a structural framework for understanding the future distribution of AI power. It argues that public-facing AI represents only the visible surface of a broader capability structure, while deeper AI systems will emerge through institutional embedding, proprietary data, operational control, resource authority, and differentiated rule conditions. The brief organizes future AI capability into three domains—Surface Intelligence, Deep Intelligence, and Dark-Domain Intelligence—and seven analytical layers that explain how AI power may stratify across access, data, authority, specialization, real-world interfaces, and rule space.

Beyond Model Capability: 

A System-Level Framework for AI Power

This policy brief develops a system-level framework for understanding AI power beyond model capability alone. It argues that real-world AI power depends on the interaction of six dimensions: model capability, data quality, resource access, authority, real-world interfaces, and rule space. The brief introduces the AI System Power Index (ASPI) as a conceptual and partially operationalized structure for assessing how AI systems become consequential when embedded in institutions, infrastructure, markets, platforms, or government functions. 

Israel’s Strategic Position After the U.S.–Iran MOU:

Options, Constraints, and Implementation Risks

This policy brief examines Israel’s strategic position after the emerging U.S.–Iran MOU, focusing on its options, constraints, and implementation risks. It argues that Israel’s core challenge is not abandonment by the United States, but reduced influence over the diplomatic architecture shaping the post-MOU phase. The brief assesses possible Israeli pathways, including public rejection, quiet acceptance, managed accommodation, limited escalation, and domestic political reframing, while evaluating risks related to nuclear monitoring, proxy resupply, sanctions snapback, and Iranian strategic reconstitution.

Three Conflicts Inside One War:

The Fragmentation of the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict into U.S.–Iran, Iran–Israel, and U.S.–Israel Tracks

This policy brief argues that the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict is fragmenting into three connected but differentiated tracks: U.S.–Iran termination, Iran–Israel deterrence, and U.S.–Israel alliance management. It examines why a U.S.–Iran memorandum may reduce direct escalation without resolving the broader conflict system, how Israel’s deterrence concerns and U.S.–Israel desynchronization complicate war termination, and why the most plausible near-term outcome is controlled fragmentation rather than comprehensive settlement. 

The First Ten Days of Phase II in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict:

From War Termination to Systemic Realignment

This policy brief examines the first ten analytical days of Phase II in the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict and argues that the conflict is shifting from war termination toward systemic realignment. It analyzes the costs of U.S. prioritization of Israel during Phase I, growing U.S.–Israel desynchronization, the Netanyahu constraint, Iran’s more calibrated Phase II behavior, and the strategic role of the Caspian–Persian Gulf linkage. The brief further argues that the conflict is no longer primarily an oil-market shock, but a wider resource-chain transmission problem affecting sulfur, fertilizer, LNG, petrochemicals, metals, battery inputs, and food-system exposure. 

External Strategic Nodes Under Pressure:

Lebanon, Israel, and the Break Thresholds of Strategic Dependency

This policy brief examines Lebanon / Hezbollah and Israel as high-value external strategic nodes under pressure in the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict. Using the ESNDI, SRBT, and ESNRI indicators within the MCCM external-node extension layer, it compares Iran’s dependency on Hezbollah as a forward deterrence node with the United States’ dependency on Israel as an institutionalized alliance node. The brief argues that the primary risk is not immediate abandonment, but conditionalization: external nodes may remain formally intact while their operational content narrows under escalation pressure, policy divergence, and strategic-control costs. 

From War Powers to Loyalty Politics: 

Trump’s Iran Response and the Government–Nation Distinction

This policy brief examines President Trump’s response to the House Iran war-powers vote as a shift from constitutional disagreement over presidential war authority to loyalty-based political framing. It argues that labeling congressional efforts to limit military action against Iran as unpatriotic weakens the U.S. government–nation distinction, creates a strategic communications vulnerability in China-related discourse, and exposes tension between U.S. external democracy messaging and domestic loyalty politics. 

Renewed Strikes and the Risk of Conflict Resumption:

Assessing June 3 Escalation Dynamics after the Fragile Ceasefire

This policy brief assesses the June 3, 2026 renewed-strike episode as a major stress test of the fragile post-ceasefire order in the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict. It argues that the June 3 events differ from the February 28 opening phase because they reflect retaliatory reactivation under incomplete de-escalation, contested Hormuz governance, weak enforcement mechanisms, and unresolved Israel-linked escalation pathways. Using MCCM v2.1+ risk-adjusted pressure profiles and scenario analysis, the brief evaluates the likelihood of controlled diplomatic recompression, partial conflict resumption, or full war resumption, and concludes that the central policy challenge has shifted from ceasefire negotiation to ceasefire control. 

Bargaining Under Systemic Pressure:

U.S. Objective Compression, Iranian Leverage Institutionalization, and the Reconfiguration of Negotiating Goals in the 85-Day Conflict

This policy brief examines how U.S. and Iranian negotiating objectives evolved during the first 85 days of the conflict. It argues that neither side achieved a clear bargaining victory; instead, the United States compressed its goals toward damage limitation and procedural control, while Iran sought to institutionalize surviving leverage through Hormuz access, nuclear sequencing, sanctions relief, and security guarantees. The brief introduces a Compression–Expansion Bargaining Model and treats the reported Pakistan-mediated draft as an example of ceasefire-first sequencing. 

Two Summits, Two Signals: 

U.S.–China Crisis Management, China–Russia Redundancy, and Caspian Shipping Rhythm

This policy brief examines the May 2026 U.S.–China and China–Russia summit sequence as two contrasting signals of great-power adjustment: crisis management and strategic redundancy. Using AIPAMS Caspian port data, it argues that Caspian shipping rhythm may serve as a secondary logistics signal of Eurasian adaptation under Hormuz-related stress. 

Signaling Without Settlement: 

An Assessment of Trump’s Beijing Visit and the Politics of Managed U.S.–China Competition

This policy brief assesses President Trump’s May 2026 Beijing visit as a high-optics but low-text summit that stabilized the appearance of U.S.–China competition without producing a codified settlement. It argues that the visit generated managed ambiguity, managed optionality, and controlled access across political framing, commerce, strategic technology, rare earths, energy, and Hormuz-related issues.

From transit fees to a chokepoint–hydrocarbon value system: 

Repricing passage, energy dependence, and regional leverage in the Strait of Hormuz 

This policy brief analyzes the reported Hormuz transit-fee mechanism as a possible early-stage Chokepoint–Hydrocarbon Value System (CHVS), in which maritime access, hydrocarbon dependence, passage pricing, alternative settlement channels, sanctions exposure, and political alignment become linked inside a contested chokepoint environment. 

Shock-Responsive Resilience in the Caspian Logistics System: 

Measuring Rebound Capacity after External Strikes 

This policy brief introduces shock-responsive resilience as a way to describe post-strike rebound behavior in the Caspian logistics system. It proposes and applies a preliminary Caspian Logistics Resilience Index (CLRI) based on rebound amplitude, recovery speed, persistence duration, flow quality, and volatility cost. Using the May 7–12, 2026 rebound window, the brief estimates a preliminary CLRI score of 61/100, placing the Caspian corridor in the shock-responsive resilience category. 

From Hormuz Pressure to Continental Redundancy: 

China’s Landward Strategy across the Inner Eurasian Landward Interface

This policy brief analyzes China’s emerging landward strategy under Hormuz-related maritime disruption by introducing the Inner Eurasian Landward Interface as a functional strategic geography linking western China, Central Asia, Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, the Caspian corridor system, and northern Indian Ocean port approaches. It argues that China’s advantage lies not in one decisive corridor, but in layered continental redundancy across northern, northeastern, southeastern, and reserve route options.

China as a Stabilizing Network Node

Strategic Positioning and Risk-Adjusted Benefit in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict

This policy brief assesses China's strategic positioning in the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict through a qualitative risk-adjusted benefit framework. It argues that China is best understood not as a simple beneficiary, but as a high-exposure stabilizing network node that may gain diplomatic relevance, strategic leverage, and narrative space while simultaneously absorbing energy, shipping, sanctions, and spillover risks. 

Caspian Logistics Shock: 

Monitoring Russia–Iran Supply Stress after the Anzali Strike

This policy brief assesses the Caspian logistics shock following the March 2026 Anzali strike by monitoring visible Russian vessel composition and Caspian port arrivals/departures from April 8 to April 29, 2026. It interprets cargo and tanker contraction, flow inversion, a short surge window, and late-April contraction as evidence of a higher-friction, window-based logistics mode rather than verified corridor closure or a confirmed second strike.

Transit of Goods through Territory of Pakistan Order 2026:

Six Land Routes, Third-Country Goods, and the Southeastern Bypass of Hormuz Pressure

This policy brief examines Pakistan’s Transit of Goods through Territory of Pakistan Order 2026 as a southeastern logistics adaptation linked to Iran-bound third-country transit under Hormuz pressure. It analyzes six designated land routes, the 6+1+1+2 logistics architecture, potential China–Pakistan rail support, the Iran–Pakistan energy layer, and air–land and sea–land extensions.

Beyond Hormuz: 

Iran’s Ten-Corridor Logistics Adaptation under Blockade Pressure

Caspian Shipping, Central Asian Rail, and the Multi-Domain Logic of Threshold-Delaying Supply 

This policy brief examines Iran’s reported ten-corridor logistics adaptation under blockade pressure. It analyzes how alternative land-sea corridors, Caspian shipping, Central Asian rail connectivity, air replenishment routes, and residual Hormuz/Persian Gulf movement combine into a multi-domain, threshold-delaying supply system.

Energy Endurance Under Systemic Shock:  Divergent Survival Pathways in East Asia During the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict  

This policy brief examines how the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict shifts East Asian energy security from supply disruption to systemic endurance. Introducing the Energy Endurance & Survival Index (EESI), it compares Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, showing how buffer capacity, rigidity, and reserve use create divergent pathways toward instability. 

Dynamic Threshold Positioning in U.S.–China Competition:

A Phase-Resolved Assessment of Structural Resilience and LoCT Distance

This policy brief applies the MCCM framework to assess U.S.–China competition through dynamic threshold positioning. It finds that the United States faces progressive LoCT compression under multi-domain pressure, while China maintains a wider threshold buffer through controlled exposure. The analysis highlights asymmetric risk structures and argues that strategic outcomes depend on proximity to systemic breakdown rather than aggregate capability.

Flow Persistence Under Blockade:

Systemic Friction and the Emergence of a Porous Maritime Regime

This policy brief examines maritime flow persistence under blockade conditions in the Strait of Hormuz following April 13, 2026 U.S. enforcement measures. It introduces the concept of a “porous blockade” and develops High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium (HPSE), showing that strategic effects arise through systemic friction and cost imposition rather than flow denial, with important implications for interpreting stability and escalation risk. 

Recovery during Ceasefire:

A Structured Assessment of U.S., Israel, and Iran Force Reconstitution

This brief examines force reconstitution during the April 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran ceasefire, showing that ceasefire functions as a competitive recovery phase. Asymmetric recovery trajectories reshape the balance of power and increase escalation risk under non-enforcement conditions.

Beyond the Battlefield: 

From Strike to System Disruption in the Caspian Logistics Network

This policy brief examines a cross-theater infrastructure strike in the Caspian Sea and its systemic impact on logistics dynamics. Using vessel-tracking data, throughput estimates, and a System Health Index (SHI), it identifies a nonlinear disruption pattern—surge, collapse, and constrained recovery. The analysis shows how node-level disruption propagates into system-wide instability, highlighting the strategic importance of system degradation and cross-theater coupling. 

Who Is Ready Under Renewed Conflict?

A Capability–Sustainability Assessment of the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict

This policy brief examines relative readiness in the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict under renewed hostilities, distinguishing between military capability and long-term sustainability. It argues that readiness is multidimensional: the United States dominates short-term combat, Iran is better positioned for protracted conflict, and Israel faces structural constraints. The central risk is not defeat, but loss of control under cumulative systemic pressure.

Escalation Without Collapse: 

High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict, Days 1–50

This policy brief examines the first 50 days of the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict as a case of escalation without collapse. Using the MCCM framework, it introduces High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium (HPSE) to explain how sustained escalation persists without systemic breakdown. The analysis highlights that risk is driven by threshold convergence rather than escalation intensity. 

China in the U.S.–Iran Conflict: 

An MCCM v2.1 Assessment of Structural Exposure, Transmission Pressure, and Threshold-Coupling Risk

This brief uses MCCM v2.1 to assess China’s position in the U.S.–Iran conflict. China’s visibility reflects structural exposure, not strategic intent, within a highly coupled system. The primary risk is threshold coupling dynamics, where limited engagement deepens systemic embedding. China thus faces exposure without control, with the central challenge of contributing to stability without becoming structurally absorbed into escalation dynamics.

From Beneficiary to Burden Carrier: 

China’s Structural Exposure in the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

This policy brief analyzes China’s emerging role in the Strait of Hormuz through systemic escalation dynamics. It argues that China’s visibility reflects structural exposure rather than deliberate geopolitical elevation. As the crisis evolves into a globally coupled system, China shifts from beneficiary to burden carrier, facing exposure–control asymmetry, dual-binding constraints, and threshold coupling risks that complicate engagement without entanglement. 

From Selective Restriction to Universal Blockade:

Legal Contestation and Third-Party Naval Intervention in the Strait of Hormuz

This brief distinguishes bounded restriction from system-wide blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, showing how universalized coercion produces systemic disruption. It argues the crisis has shifted from bilateral conflict to maritime governance. Drawing on UNCLOS and the UN Charter, it supports third-party deployment as navigation assurance. Using MCCM v2.0+, it demonstrates how intervention stabilizes flows while increasing escalation risk. 

Beyond the Gulf: 

The Emergence of a Three-Channel, Threshold-Delaying Logistics System in Iran under Sustained Geopolitical Constraint

This policy brief analyzes Iran’s external logistics system under sustained geopolitical constraint, conceptualizing it as a three-channel architecture integrating maritime, rail, and road transport. It introduces a threshold-delaying model in which continuity is maintained through minimum viable flow rather than capacity maximization. Evidence suggests limited but resilient throughput, implying that disruption effectiveness depends on targeting bottlenecks rather than aggregate capacity.

Governing Fragmentation: 

Jurisdictional Competition and China’s Counter-Extraterritoriality Framework

This policy report examines jurisdiction as a domain of strategic competition, using China’s counter-extraterritoriality framework as a case. It argues jurisdiction has become a contested dimension of state power, driving global compliance fragmentation and a jurisdictional regime complex. Identifying trajectories of managed fragmentation, legal retaliation, and bifurcation, it concludes that stability depends on effectively governing fragmentation without assuming systemic convergence. 

From Cost Monitoring to Systemic Escalation Assessment:

The MCCM v2.0+ Framework

This policy brief introduces MCCM v2.0+, a framework for systemic escalation assessment beyond cost-based monitoring. It models escalation as a multi-layered, networked process across domains using 23 variables. A case study of April 12, 2026 illustrates high-risk dynamics below breakdown thresholds. MCCM v2.0+ supports early warning, scenario analysis, and policy interpretation under uncertainty in complex conflict systems. 

U.S. Defense Procurement (Jan–Apr 2026): 

AI as the Foundation of Modern Warfare

This policy brief analyzes U.S. AI-related defense procurement (Jan–Apr 2026), showing rapid growth and a structural shift toward AI as a foundational layer enabling system coherence, operational stability, and effective performance under high-intensity, complex combat conditions. 

Russia–Iran Northern Supply Capacity:

A Three-Channel Assessment of Sustained Throughput Under Constraint

This brief assesses Russia–Iran northern supply as a constrained three-channel system, estimating 3,800–29,000 t/day. It shows the network functions as a resilience mechanism that sustains continuity, delays escalation (LoCT), and redistributes costs (MCCM), rather than enabling large-scale surge logistics. 

Ceasefire as Recovery Competition: 

Rearmament, External Support, and Strategic Regeneration in a Non-Enforcement Environment

Ceasefires under conditions of non-enforcement do not stabilize conflict; they restructure it into a competitive interval of recovery. Actors convert time into military capability at unequal rates, while sustained pressure on proxy networks degrades deterrence coherence. The interaction between asymmetric recovery and network disruption produces systemic instability rather than equilibrium, reshaping the balance of power ahead of renewed competition. 

Ceasefire Under Conditions of Non-Enforcement:

Time Arbitrage, Negotiation Dynamics, and Controlled De-escalation in the U.S.–Iran Conflict with Israeli Structural Constraints

This policy brief examines ceasefire design under conditions of non-enforcement, using the U.S.–Iran conflict with Israeli structural constraints as a primary analytical case. It reconceptualizes ceasefire as a self-enforcing strategic arrangement rather than a trust-based mechanism, introducing time arbitrage to explain how negotiations redistribute temporal advantage. The study identifies asymmetric pauses as a key source of instability and proposes the Six-Layer Lock Mechanism (SLLM), a modular framework for structuring synchronized, verifiable, and reversible exchanges. The findings offer a transferable model for controlled, conditional de-escalation in high-intensity conflicts lacking external enforcement 

What Cannot Be Recovered Cannot Be Leveraged:

Debris, Evidence, and Power in the Iran Battlefield

This brief argues that strategic influence in modern warfare is conditioned by recoverability, introducing a framework linking debris, evidence, and power in the 2026 U.S–Israel–Iran conflict. 

From Regional Power to Network Node: 

Iran’s Post-War Trajectory and Strategic Positioning

This policy brief analyzes Iran’s post-war trajectory as a shift toward a network-embedded strategic node. It highlights cost-imposition dynamics, partial alignment, and internal–external structural tensions. The concept of Network-Embedded Power is introduced to explain how influence derives from systemic positioning rather than traditional dominance.

From Representative of the West to Primary Node:

The Transformation of the United States in the Future Western and Transatlantic Political System

This policy brief examines the transformation of U.S. centrality from representation to networked connectivity within a partially aligned Western system. Driven by rising costs, strategic divergence, and system complexity, it introduces the Loss-of-Control Threshold (LoCT) to explain nonlinear escalation risks in an increasingly modular and coordinated but less controllable order. 

If the United States Suddenly Withdraws:

Systemic Shock, Proxy Amplification, and Strategic Realignment in the Middle East Conflict

This policy brief examines the systemic effects of a sudden U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East conflict. Using the SAR framework, MCCM, and the Loss-of-Control Threshold (LoCT), it shows how withdrawal redistributes and amplifies risk, driving cost diffusion, proxy escalation, and a transition toward a more volatile and less controllable conflict system.

Israel’s Strategic Options and U.S. Rebalancing under Dual-Theater Constraints

This policy brief examines Israel’s strategic options and U.S. rebalancing under dual-theater constraints linking the Middle East and Ukraine. It argues that resource scarcity and cross-theater competition are reshaping conflict dynamics, shifting outcomes from escalation capacity toward allocation priority, and redefining strategy as competition within a constrained global allocation system. 

From Compensation to Strategic Amplification: 

Iran’s Reparations Claims in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict

This policy brief reframes Iran’s reparations claims in the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict as instruments of strategic cost reassignment. Using MCCM, it introduces PCRR to measure conversion of conflict costs into political leverage, identifying thresholds from symbolic positioning to narrative restructuring and highlighting cost–narrative dynamics shaping responsibility, negotiation baselines, and conflict systems.

Control vs. Amplification:

Information System Divergence in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict

Evidence from China’s Signaling System

This policy brief analyzes information system divergence in the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict using a dual-layer framework with SPI and EAR metrics. It finds divergence driven by event amplification rather than baseline narratives, with China’s controlled signaling contrasting decentralized amplification systems, producing nonlinear, event-driven instability and risks of amplification loss during high-intensity events.

Divergent War Aims: 

The U.S., Israel, and the Strategic Logic of Divergence in the Iran Conflict

This brief examines U.S.–Israel strategic divergence in the Iran conflict. While operationally aligned, their war aims differ in structure, time horizon, and escalation tolerance. A three-part framework—control, coercion, and cost imposition—explains how Iran exploits these differences, producing coalition stress. The divide is not tactical but definitional, shaping outcomes, thresholds, and strategic coherence over time. 

Deterrence Under Cost Pressure: 

From Overmatch to Cost Imposition in the U.S.–Iran Conflict 

This policy brief analyzes how the U.S.–Iran conflict reflects a shift from overmatch deterrence to cost-imposition dynamics. Using 25-day conflict data, it identifies declining signaling coherence, erosion of low-cost coercion, instrumental identity mobilization, and networked alignments. Findings show persistent cost asymmetry, indicating that strategic advantage increasingly depends on sustaining competition under prolonged cost pressure. 

Competition over the Loss-of-Control Threshold: 

A Systemic Theory of Escalation in Networked Conflict

This brief assesses a potential U.S. seizure of Kharg Island using the loss-of-control threshold (LoCT) framework. It argues that U.S. operational superiority enables access but not low-cost control, while Iran’s cost-imposition strategy drives systemic pressure. Conflict outcomes depend on sustaining control under cumulative multi-domain stress rather than decisive battlefield victory.

Post-Nodal Warfare:

Will Distributed AI Command Replace Human Leadership in High-Intensity Conflict?

This policy brief introduces post-nodal warfare, where distributed AI-enabled command reduces reliance on leadership nodes and weakens decapitation strategies. It identifies a shift toward system-level command functions, highlighting operational advantages alongside new vulnerabilities in cybersecurity, data integrity, governance, and escalation, with implications for future high-intensity conflict. 

Terminal Platform Nodes and Narrative Competition in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict

 This policy brief examines narrative competition in the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict through Terminal Platform Nodes (TPNs)—the algorithmically mediated points where narratives reach mass audiences. Using 5,000 social media posts from X, Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram (Feb 28–Mar 14, 2026), it finds that narrative influence is shaped less by message production than by platform algorithms and engagement dynamics. Monitoring TPNs is therefore critical for understanding contemporary information warfare and strengthening the resilience of democratic information environments. 

Narrative Underperformance in the First Week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran War

This policy brief examines information competition during the first week of the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran war. Despite substantial U.S. communication activity, differences in communication tempo, narrative continuity, media-format compatibility, and expectation dynamics shaped perceptions of momentum. A best-effort estimate suggests visible communication tempo approximated 1.2 : 1 : 2.1 (United States : Israel : Iran), highlighting the advantage of continuous, feed-compatible messaging in early-stage conflicts. 

The U.S.–Iran War and East Asia’s Next Strategic Test:

Why the Middle East Conflict May Reshape Risk in the Western Pacific

This policy brief assesses the first seven days of the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran war. It argues that the conflict has moved beyond the level of a limited punitive exchange but remains below the threshold of full-scale regional war. The central finding is that the war has entered an unstable intermediate condition characterized by sustained missile-UAV exchange, widening maritime and economic spillover, and growing allied operational integration. The brief finds that the most important driver of next-phase escalation is not average strike performance, but the risk of a threshold-crossing event, including a successful strike on a critical node, a major civilian-casualty incident, sustained deterioration in interception performance, or explicit expansion of war aims. It concludes that the conflict remains under constrained escalation, but the margin of stability is narrowing. 

The U.S.–Iran War and East Asia’s Next Strategic Test:

Why the Middle East Conflict May Reshape Risk in the Western Pacific

This policy brief argues that the U.S.–Iran war could reshape deterrence dynamics beyond the Middle East by straining U.S. assets, alliance decision space, and perceptions of American resolve. It identifies East Asia as the most plausible next strategic test, with a Taiwan-centered coercive crisis as the most likely serious pathway, the South China Sea as the most likely limited-clash pathway, and the Korean Peninsula as the fastest escalation theater. Based on qualitative analysis of open-source materials, the brief contributes to research on strategic risk, alliance strain, and cross-regional deterrence under missile-intensive conflict conditions. 

Escalation Dynamics in IRGC’s Operation True Promise: 

Interpreting the Conflict through an Escalation Ladder Framework

This policy brief analyzes escalation dynamics in the U.S.–Israel–Iran confrontation using an escalation ladder framework derived from IRGC Operation True Promise. The framework identifies nine escalation levels from shadow competition to potential large-scale ground conflict. Current indicators suggest the conflict lies between Levels 4 and 6, marked by sustained missile–UAV exchanges and maritime spillover. The study argues that escalation risk is driven less by average strike intensity than by the cumulative probability of threshold-crossing events involving critical strategic nodes. 

Escalation Risk in Protracted Missile Exchanges: 

Assessing Low-Probability, High-Impact Dynamics in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict Based on IRGC Operation True Promise 4 (Waves 1–13)

This policy brief analyzes escalation risk in protracted missile exchanges using a probabilistic accumulation framework, with IRGC Operation True Promise 4 (Waves 1–13) as a bounded case. Drawing on open-source reporting and scenario-based cost modeling, it examines launch tempo, interception effectiveness, critical-node exposure, and political reaction multipliers. The study argues that escalation risk stems less from average strike performance than from the cumulative probability of a single high-impact event. Findings indicate the conflict remains contained but structurally unstable under sustained high-tempo conditions. 

Assessing AI Capabilities Across Six Major Countries and Economic Blocs: An Eight-Dimensional Comparative Framework

This policy brief evaluates AI capabilities across six major countries and economic blocs using an eight-dimensional comparative framework. In addition to traditional structural metrics, such as compute, models, data, industry, chips, and military integration, it incorporates Domestic Task Competence (DTC) and Foreign Task Competence (FTC) to assess real-world execution capacity. The findings suggest that sustainable AI competitiveness depends not only on frontier innovation but also on institutional integration, cross-border operability, and semiconductor resilience.

Lifecycle Cost Parity Between Human Personnel and AI-Enabled Systems: 

Implications for U.S. and China’s Force Structure Transition (2026–2060)

This policy brief analyzes when AI-enabled military systems reach lifecycle cost parity with human personnel in the United States and China across major services (2026–2060). Findings show earlier crossover in most U.S. roles due to higher personnel liabilities, with China following under different industrial conditions. Information and maintenance roles transition first, maneuver forces in the 2030s, while strategic domains remain human-anchored into the 2040s–2050s. 

The Fiscal Implications of Recent U.S. Force Posture Adjustments in the Middle East: 

An Event-Driven Estimate (Jan 26 – Feb 15, 2026)

This policy brief presents an event-driven estimate of the incremental fiscal impact of recent U.S. force posture adjustments in the Middle East (Jan 26–Feb 15, 2026). Using publicly reported milestones and open-source cost anchors, it models surge-only expenditures at an estimated USD 0.25–0.58 billion, enhancing fiscal transparency in escalation scenarios. 

Where Data Centers Get Built?

Institutional Friction and the Spatial Logic of Compute Infrastructure in the United States

This policy brief analyzes U.S. data center development through institutional feasibility, arguing that large-scale compute infrastructure is built where governance capacity, permitting, and utility coordination enable low-friction deployment. It introduces the Infrastructure Friction Boundary (IFB) to diagnose such jurisdictions and highlights governance risks including energy lock-in and infrastructure–governance asymmetry. 

Governing Structural Centrality: 

Greenland as an AI-Strategic Node under the AI-SNI Framework

This policy brief applies the AI-Strategic Node Index (AI-SNI) to examine Greenland as a structurally significant node in Arctic great-power interaction. AI-SNI diagnostics place Greenland in a Tier 3 exposure regime, reflecting high sensing and decision-loop centrality and latent optionality, constrained primarily by infrastructure–governance asymmetry. Designed for Track-2 dialogue, the brief is diagnostic and non-prescriptive. 

Governing Structural Centrality: 

Greenland as an AI-Strategic Node under the AI-SNI Framework

This policy brief applies the AI-Strategic Node Index (AI-SNI) to Greenland as a node-level diagnostic case, assessing how structural centrality in AI-mediated systems interacts with governance capacity under Arctic conditions. An AI-SNI score of 0.52 (Tier 3) indicates relevant structural exposure rather than ordinal risk. Diagnostics show high sensing and decision-loop centrality, moderate modelling leverage, and latent resource optionality, constrained primarily by infrastructure–governance asymmetry. 

From AI Capabilities to Structural Governance: 

Operationalizing the AI-Strategic Node Index (AI-SNI) for Practical AI Governance

This policy brief introduces the AI-Strategic Node Index (AI-SNI), a governance-oriented diagnostic instrument for identifying structural exposure, leverage concentration, and governance fragility in AI-enabled systems. It operationalizes the AI-Strategic Node Framework Conceptual and Methodological White Book (v0.1) to support non-prescriptive AI governance, informing national strategy, cross-border coordination, and institutional risk assessment in contexts of AI-enabled warfare, sustainability, and global security governance. 

Nonlinear Uncertainty in Drone Warfare: Exploring How AI Technologies and Indeterminacy Outperform Precision in Contested ISR Environments as an Innovation Hub for Interdisciplinary Science in the Digital Humanities.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies are increasingly recognized as a vital component of national power, particularly in the context of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy. This strategy emphasizes the role of AI in fostering an innovation hub that accelerates advancements in various fields, including digital humanities. By leveraging interdisciplinary science, the integration of AI technologies can enhance our national security framework and address emerging global challenges.

From Detection to Depletion: Exploring Sustainability Constraints in Counter-Drone Defense through AI technologies and insights from digital humanities. This approach fosters an innovation hub where interdisciplinary science meets the challenges of modern aerial security.