Publications

Beyond Theater Effects: 

Perception-Driven Escalation and Loss-of-Control Thresholds in AI-Mediated Conflict

This working paper examines how artificial intelligence reshapes escalation by shifting conflict dynamics from material interaction to perception-driven amplification. Using the MCCM framework, it conceptualizes escalation as a threshold-based process centered on LoCT. Through cross-domain case analysis, the study identifies perception–impact decoupling and LoCT compression, highlighting how information systems, narrative amplification, and institutional capacity jointly determine escalation risk. 

Greenland as a Structural AI Strategic Node: 

Perception Integrity, Temporal Dominance, and the Arctic Reconfiguration of Algorithmic Power

Why the South?

Institutional Friction and the Spatial Reorganization of Data Center Infrastructure in the United States

When AI Infrastructure Is Optional but Governance Lock-In Is Not: 

An AI-SNI Local Governance Diagnostic of the Temple (GA) Data Center Proposal

A Systemic Theory of Escalation and the Loss-of-Control Threshold in Networked Conflict

This working paper develops a systemic theory of escalation centered on the loss-of-control threshold (LoCT) as a dynamic state-transition condition. It models escalation as an endogenous process driven by systemic pressure, structural node criticality, and perception feedback. Strategic success is redefined as temporal control—the ability to remain below the LoCT—making conflict a competition over sustained controllability rather than decisive victory. 

Who Loses Control First?

Threshold Competition in the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict

This working paper analyzes the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict as threshold competition rather than decisive war. It introduces the loss-of-control threshold (LoCT) to explain escalation failure under systemic pressure. The United States faces overextension, Israel escalation lock-in, and Iran a retaliation loop. Outcomes depend on resilience in delaying loss of control rather than battlefield superiority.

Systemic Warfare in the Networked Age: 

Operational Systems, Information Competition, and Cumulative Pressure

This working paper introduces systemic warfare as a framework for understanding how contemporary conflict operates through cumulative pressure across interconnected operational systems and networked information environments. It integrates Operational System Warfare and information competition, and proposes two analytical constructs: the Operational Node Criticality Score (ONCS) and the Systemic Pressure Index (SPI). Drawing on an illustration from the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran confrontation, the paper shows how disruptions propagate and generate nonlinear effects, offering a theoretically grounded model with testable implications for future research.

Industrial War and Network War: 

Operational Logics in the Russia–Ukraine War and the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict

This working paper compares the Russia–Ukraine War and the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict as two distinct operational logics of contemporary warfare: industrial warfare centered on territorial control and network-oriented warfare aimed at imposing systemic pressure on distributed military infrastructure. It argues that modern conflicts increasingly operate through networked operational systems in which repeated strikes impose cumulative costs, operational nodes become critical targets, and globally deployed powers face growing vulnerability to cross-regional pressure. 

Cloud Under Fire:

Hyperscale Data Centers and the Rise of Cyber-Physical Warfare

This working paper examines the strategic significance of hyperscale cloud infrastructure in modern conflict. Using the concept of Digital Strategic Nodes (DSNs) and the reported strikes near AWS facilities during the 2026 U.S.–Iran conflict as a case study, it analyzes how concentrated cloud infrastructure may create systemic vulnerabilities. The study maps 28 regional digital nodes and highlights the growing role of cyber-physical disruption in warfare. 

Losing the Narrative:

Communication Tempo, Expectation Asymmetry, and Perception Effects in the First Week of the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran War

This working paper analyzes why the United States appeared to lose narrative momentum in the information environment during the first week of the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran war despite contested battlefield outcomes. Using a best-effort estimate of visible official communication outputs (Feb 28–Mar 6, 2026), it argues that differences in disclosure tempo, narrative continuity, media-format compatibility, and expectation asymmetry significantly shaped early-phase perception dynamics. 

The Global Strategic Chain Reactions of the U.S.–Iran War:

East Asia as the Next Plausible Capability-Revealing Theater

This working paper argues that the U.S.–Iran war should be understood not only as a regional conflict, but also as a source of wider strategic chain reactions across other theaters. It identifies East Asia as the most plausible next capability-revealing theater and assesses Taiwan-centered coercive confrontation as the most likely pathway. The paper contributes to the study of strategic risk, alliance strain, and AI-mediated conflict by examining how contemporary wars reveal the limits of military power and multi-theater coherence under operational stress. 

Derivative-State Drift: 

A Continuous-Time Model of Constraint Erosion in Elite and Artificial Optimization Systems

When Decapitation No Longer Matters: 

AI-Delegated Execution and the Potential Failure of Preemptive Strike Logic