Escalation Risk in Protracted Missile Exchanges:
Assessing Low-Probability, High-Impact Dynamics in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict Based on IRGC Operation True Promise 4 (Waves 1–13)
Author: Dr. Shaoyuan Wu
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Affiliation: EPINOVA LLC
Research Unit: Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
Date: 2026-03-03
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18843800
Recommended Citation：
EPINOVA (2026), Escalation Risk in Protracted Missile Exchanges:
Assessing Low-Probability, High-Impact Dynamics in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict Based on IRGC Operation True Promise 4 (Waves 1–13), Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–08, Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18843800.
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